Marcus Lin built predictionDaily in early 2023 after eight years inside a US congressional polling shop. The channel posts twice weekly - a Sunday "markets to watch" stream and a Wednesday short on a single trade thesis. Style is data-forward but not jargon-heavy. He reads polls in public, shows his math, and is one of the rare voices in the space who tags markets explicitly as "skip" when he doesn't have edge - which we view favourably.
Auto-indexed from their public feeds. Updated every 6 hours.
Walks through three races where state-level polling diverges from the market price. Specific entry levels mentioned for OH, MT, and AZ markets.
Tagged trade thesis with size disclosed (~$8k). Followed by a 4-tweet thread on why the post-CPI revisions haven't priced in yet. 1.2k reposts.
Long-form post arguing that state senate and gubernatorial markets have lost about 30% of their pricing inefficiency since 2024. Recommends a tighter scope.
Twice-weekly posting cadence, mostly Sunday and Wednesday US-Eastern. Direct links below.
Whether you want to mirror their signals or extract specific pieces of their approach, we can scope and build it in 3-4 weeks.